Research Dossier on Syrian Refugee Return Dynamics - Revisiting Return to Syria: Between Protection and Policy Imperatives
The question of Syrian refugee return has taken center stage following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. This collection of articles by GAPs researchers critically examines whether refugee return can be truly voluntary and dignified amidst Syria's ongoing instability, regional geopolitical pressures, and deteriorating conditions in host countries.
Executive Summary:
The Syrian refugee return question has come to the forefront in recent months with the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. This dossier compiles published research and policy analysis by GAPs researchers studying the question of Syrian refugee return, both regional and policy matters more generally.
The pieces included in this dossier analyze how trends in return are shaped by a variety of conflicting forces: deteriorating circumstances in host countries, geopolitics, and the interlinked local and international politics. As Nimer and Stel demonstrate in Lebanon's case of forced migration, so-called "voluntary return" in practice has a way of hiding instances of coerced movement, particularly with the deteriorating situation of Syrian refugees in Lebanon and the most recent backlash of Israeli war. This is complemented by Yüksel and Gökalp-Aras's qualitative examination of post-Assad return movements from Türkiye, which reveals how even where political transition is concerned, refugees balance various factors in their decision, ranging from safety concerns to questions of infrastructure. Nimer and Rottmann, also write about what "safe" return is, arguing that safety involves more than the lack of overt violence – it requires the conditions for sustainable livelihoods and dignified living. Similarly, the commentary by Dinçer and Şahin-Mencütek highlight that sustainable returns will depend on several critical factors: the provision of security, sufficient funding for reconstruction, and the performance of political actors, including their ability to build trust and establish mechanisms to protect human rights.
A policy brief targeting the German stakeholders is published with the collaboration of GAPs and REMIG projects, Dinçer, Vollmer, Şahin-Mencütek, and Engelberth make four concrete recommendations. 1) Allow refugees to travel to Syria to prepare for their return 2)Provide targeted support to those who may need or wish to return soon 3)Prioritise transitional support to foster conditions for sustainable 4) Harness the potential of the Syrian diaspora through enhanced integration efforts.
Drawing on both policy texts and individual lived experience, these articles collectively highlight the importance of making any return process really voluntary, dignified, and sustainable. They caution against rushed or politicized return policy, particularly in light of recent developments, and advocate for refugee-focused policy and practice that center around refugee rights and agency.
The dossier includes:
1- Forced Displacement as Refugee Return Amidst Regional War: The Plight of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon by Maissam Nimer:
https://www.returnmigration.eu/gapsblog/the-plight-of-syrian-refugees-in-lebanon
2- The struggle for a dignified return of refugees to Syria, by Maissam Nimer and Susan Beth Rottmann:
https://theloop.ecpr.eu/the-struggle-for-a-dignified-return-of-refugees-to-syria/
3- Syria’s Uncertain Path: Challenges of Return, Stability and Trust, by Osman Bahadır Dinçer, Zeynep Şahin-Mencütek:
https://www.justsecurity.org/107044/syria-uncertain-return-stability-trust/
4- Displaced again: forced mobility from Lebanon to Syria. The Loop. ECPR. (2024). Maissam Nimer and Nora Stel:
https://theloop.ecpr.eu/displaced-again-forced-mobility-from-lebanon-to-syria/
5- Preliminary Reflections on Post-Assad Syria: Emerging Dynamics and the Complex Reality of Refugee Returns from Türkiye, by: Umutcan Yüksel, N. Ela Gökalp-Aras:
https://www.returnmigration.eu/gapsblog/preliminary-reflections-on-post-assad-syria
6- Syrian Refugee Return: What Policy Must Do, by Osman Bahadır Dinçer, Ruth Vollmer, Zeynep Şahin-Mencütek and Selina Engelberth:
https://www.bicc.de/Publications/Report/Syrian-Refugee-Return--What-Policy-Must-Do/pu/14795