Forced Displacement as Refugee Return Amidst Regional War: The Plight of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon

by: Maissam Nimer | Özyeğin University

Israel’s recent escalation in Lebanon, including the reported assassination of top Hezbollah leaders such as Hassan Nasrallah, is not just another chapter in the region’s long history of conflict—it is a direct attack on the very fabric of Lebanese sovereignty and a further destabilization of an already fragile region. The assassination signals Israel's ongoing tactic of dismantling political movements that resist its occupation and expansionist policies, disregarding the broader consequences for civilians, governance, and regional stability.
Amidst these developments, some might see celebrations among Syrians in North West Syria as a sign that Israel’s attack on Lebanon is welcome by those in the region. For many displaced Syrians, the perceived weakening of Hezbollah, a key ally of the Assad regime, is a positive development, but this should not be taken as a sign that Israel’s actions are truly liberating. Rather, these celebrations only underscore the persistent deep frustration with not only the Syrian regime but also the broader geopolitical entanglements that have left their country in ruins.

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This Country Dossier investigates the interplay between regional return governance and the European Union's external migration policies. It aims to address the prevalent Eurocentric bias in return migration studies by emphasizing the perspectives of neighboring Global South countries, which are often neglected in academic discourse. Utilizing document analysis and expert interviews, the project examines how regional return systems influence migration dynamics, particularly in Lebanon concerning its Syrian refugee population.

Return migration governance from Lebanon to Syria is characterized by fragmented policies and unreliable data due to the absence of centralized monitoring and differing agendas among various stakeholders. Modalities of return include self-organized individual returns, facilitated group returns, deportations, and pushbacks, with indications of a decline in voluntary returns alongside an increase in forced returns. These shifts are largely driven by legal, socioeconomic, and political pressures exerted by Lebanese authorities, as well as the complexities of the Syrian government’s ambivalent stance toward accepting returnees.

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