What Lies Ahead Under Syria’s New Leadership for Refugees in Jordan
Syrians wave revolutionary flags and flash the V sign for victory in the central city of Homs early on December 8, 2024, after rebel forces entered Syria's third-largest city overnight. Source: The Atlantic, Google Image : https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2024/12/photos-syrians-celebrate-fall-assad/680919/
by: Jamal Al Shalabi, Rasha Istaiteyeh | Hashemite University
As the Jordanian government was devising strategies and policies to address the Syrian refugee crisis and repatriate nearly 1.3 million Syrian refugees, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, and the opposition’s takeover of power was a “new opportunity” to radically and completely reconsider its strategy towards Syrian refugees, especially since this crisis represents a major challenge for a small country where 31% of its population of 11 million people hold “refugee status,” most of whom are Palestinians and Syrians.
The main question is: will the transformation in Jordan's northern neighbor really contribute to the voluntary and substantial return of refugees or will the refugees hesitate between staying in their host country and returning to their homeland?
Political Change in Syria: Cautious Hopes
The fall of the Assad regime has reopened discussions on the legal and political status of Syrian refugees in Jordan. Hopes have risen for a resolution to the crisis, as Syria remains the largest refugee crisis globally, with 13.8 million displaced people as of 2023. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported 657,857 Syrian refugees in Jordan as of January 31, 2025.
Since the regime’s collapse, over 270,000 Syrians have returned home from host countries, including Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq. Jordan alone has seen 34,690 voluntary returns as of February 11, 2025—a sharp rise compared to 2023 when only 4,000 refugees returned. However, despite this increase, significant barriers to mass repatriation remain.
One of the primary concerns is Syria’s fragile transitional governance. The new leadership, led by Ahmad al-Shar’a (al-Julani), raises apprehensions due to his past affiliation with extremist groups. The potential for an authoritarian or hardline rule could deter many refugees from returning. Moreover, Syria’s devastated infrastructure and lack of economic opportunities present additional challenges. In southern Syria, where most Jordan-based refugees originate, instability and unemployment make reintegration difficult. The lack of basic services and security risks—including crime and drug trafficking—further complicate the return process.
Additionally, international reluctance to fully engage with the new Syrian government delays reconstruction efforts, which are essential for refugees’ reintegration. Many Western nations remain cautious about normalizing relations with Syria’s new administration, creating a diplomatic deadlock that affects refugee policy.
Humanitarian Challenges
Jordan has consistently expressed concerns about the long-term implications of hosting Syrian refugees. The UNHCR reports that 111,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan require urgent resettlement due to humanitarian concerns. Previously, some were relocated to Western countries, but with the fall of the Assad regime, resettlement has become more difficult. Several European nations, including Germany, France, and Finland, have suspended asylum procedures for Syrians, while others, such as Austria, have proposed forced repatriation.
This aligns with a 2023 UNHCR survey indicating that 97% of refugees were unwilling to return due to security and economic reasons. Even after the regime change, many Syrian families adopt a hybrid approach, where the breadwinner remains in Jordan to support returning family members financially.
Decline in International Aid
The Jordanian government has also faced declining international support for refugee assistance. Following the Assad regime’s fall, donor funding has significantly decreased, threatening both refugee welfare and Jordan’s economic stability. Paul George, director of Action Against Hunger in Jordan, describes the Syrian refugee crisis as "forgotten," with cuts in monthly aid reducing allowances in camps like Azraq from 23 to 15 Jordanian dinars per person.
These reductions have severe social and security implications. A 2024 UNHCR study found that poverty rates among Syrian refugees in Jordan rose from 57% to 67% over two years. With financial aid dwindling, refugees face increased hardships, leading to heightened tensions in host communities.
Jordan’s Diplomatic Approach and Regional Coordination
Jordan has adopted a pragmatic diplomatic strategy to address the Syrian refugee crisis, emphasizing multilateral cooperation. Even before Assad’s fall, Jordan pursued a political settlement approach, as seen in the 2023 Amman meeting, which promoted a step-by-step reintegration of Syria into the Arab League in exchange for constitutional reforms and refugee repatriation.
After the opposition took power, Jordan intensified engagement with the new Syrian leadership. Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi was among the first to visit Damascus, meeting with Syrian President Ahmad al-Shar’a on December 23, 2024. This marked a shift in Jordan’s refugee strategy from an individual effort to a collective international initiative, aligning with European diplomatic interests.
European nations, initially hesitant about the new Syrian government, are now reassessing their stance. While some remain skeptical of al-Shar’a’s ideological direction, they recognize the need for dialogue to facilitate refugee return and stability in the region. The increased involvement of European diplomatic delegations in Damascus suggests a shift toward cooperative engagement with Jordan and other host nations.
Challenges and Prospects
Jordan advocates for a structured and voluntary return process, ensuring that returning refugees have adequate support in Syria. However, the success of repatriation efforts depends on several factors:
Political Stability in Syria: The transitional government must establish security and governance structures to assure returning refugees of their safety and rights.
Economic Reconstruction: Without job opportunities and essential services, large-scale repatriation will be unsustainable.
International Support: Continued global engagement and funding are crucial for rebuilding efforts and refugee assistance.
To address these issues, Jordan spearheaded the "Aqaba Meeting," gathering regional and international stakeholders to discuss Syria’s future. This was followed by the February 2025 International Conference in Paris, where world leaders pledged to support Syria’s transition and refugee reintegration.
Insights
While the fall of the Assad regime has renewed hope for resolving the Syrian refugee crisis, immediate large-scale returns remain unlikely due to economic instability, security risks, and political uncertainties. Jordan continues to bear a significant burden, with decreasing international aid and ongoing humanitarian challenges.
However, Jordan’s diplomatic approach, engaging with Syria’s new government while advocating for structured repatriation, positions it as a key player in shaping regional refugee policy. The success of refugee return efforts will depend on Syria’s internal stability and the willingness of the international community to invest in long-term solutions. Until conditions improve in Syria, the refugee crisis will remain a complex challenge for Jordan and the broader region.
Contact:
Rasha Istaiteyeh, Hashemite University, Jordan | ristaiteyeh@hu.edu.jo