Migration & Return Rhetoric in Türkiye’s General & Presidential 2023 Elections: Navigating the Controversial Terrain of Return Migration
2023 Parliamentary and Presidential elections was held on May 14th, 2023
by: N. Ela Gökalp-Aras, SRII | Umutcan Yüksel, SRII | Hakan Ünay, SRII
The comparative analysis of the selected political parties’ election rhetoric for migration demonstrates the diverse approaches towards return discourse concerning Syrians, Afghans, and irregular migrants. While some parties prioritise voluntary, safe, and dignified returns, others advocate for preventive measures, integration efforts, and respect for human rights.
The 2023 Presidential and General Elections in Turkey marked a pivotal moment in the nation’s history as it celebrated the centenary of the Turkish Republic. Amidst this significant event, migration and return emerged as critical focal points for election campaigns. Political parties strategically harnessed migration issues to influence public opinion and gain voter support. In this blog post, we delve into the 2023 Turkish General and Presidential Elections, analysing how migration and return strategies shaped the political discourse and exploring the different approaches taken by political parties and leaders. The blog comprehensively analyses the main political parties and political leaders’ strategies in employing return rhetoric during electoral campaigns. Drawing from qualitative data collected through content analysis of campaign materials, official statements, and social media coverage (tweets) of the presidential candidates regarding the Presidency elections, it explores how the main political parties and political actors addressed the complex migration issue and framed the discourse on return.
The Presidential elections took place on 14 May (first round) and 28 May 2023 (second round), with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the incumbent President, seeking re-election as the unified candidate representing the People’s Alliance. The Nation Alliance, consisting of six opposition parties, presented Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), as their candidate for the presidential race. Two additional candidates, Muharrem İnce from the Homeland Party (MP) and Sinan Oğan (who participated as an independent candidate, also qualified to run, but İnce withdrew before the election. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured victory in the second round, obtaining 52.18% of the vote.
In the General Elections, the leading parties were the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Republican People’s Party (CHP), MHP (Nationalist Movement Party), Party of Greens and the Left Future (YSP), Good Party (İYİ), New Welfare Party (YRP), and TİP (Workers’ Party of Turkey). AKP won the majority of seats with 268 deputies, followed by CHP with 169 deputies.
We analysed the tweets of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Muharrem İnce, and Sinan Oğan during the election campaign. The analysis showed that return rhetoric was common for all candidates, but their approaches varied significantly.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emphasised voluntary returns, particularly in the context of Northern Syria. He stressed the importance of following international refugee laws and avoiding forced returns or deportations. His approach was humanitarian and grounded in the belief that Turkey had a moral duty to assist those in need.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, on the other hand, focused on the return of irregular migrants and Syrian refugees. He expressed concerns about the impact of refugees on security and highlighted the need to protect the country from irregular immigration.
Sinan Oğan employed radical rhetoric, referring to immigrants as “invaders” and emphasising the economic burden they supposedly placed on the country. His campaign revolved around forcefully returning asylum seekers and irregular immigrants, particularly through the hashtag “#Oangeliyor.”
Muharrem İnce also addressed migration and return in his campaign, promising to send Syrians back to their countries and banning the sale of housing to foreigners.
Return rhetoric concerning Syrians, Afghans, and irregular migrants varied across political parties.
Concerning Syrians, some parties adopted a humanitarian approach, focusing on sustainable solutions and integration efforts. Others capitalised on security concerns, presenting Syrians as a potential threat to national security and advocating for repatriation and safe zones within Syria.
Regarding Afghans, parties addressed the urgent issue of Afghan refugees. Some advocated for immediate evacuation and resettlement, while others prioritised providing humanitarian aid to those displaced within Afghanistan. The stance on return rhetoric for Afghans ranged from offering support to implementing containment measures to prevent mass movements into Turkey.
Concerning irregular migration, parties explored strategies to address the issue. Some emphasised bolstering border security and implementing deterrent measures to address irregular entries. Others stressed the importance of safeguarding the human rights of irregular migrants and advocated for establishing legal pathways for regular migration.
Image: International IDEA/Joshua Sowah, Available at: https://www.idea.int/news-media/news/importance-political-participation-refugees
In general, four tendencies were observed regarding migration and asylum during the elections:
Humanitarian Concerns vs. Political Exploitation: The presence of refugees raised questions about Turkey’s ability to accommodate and support such a large population. While some political parties advocated for compassionate policies and integrated approaches to migration, others sought to exploit public fears and discontent by presenting a hardline stance.
National Identity and Sovereignty: Migration became a contentious topic as certain parties argued that the influx of refugees threatened Turkey’s national identity and sovereignty. These arguments resonated with segments of the population grappling with economic hardships and social tensions.
Economic Implications: Critics of the ruling government blamed migrants for contributing to economic challenges, such as unemployment and a strain on public resources. Politicians used this narrative to sway voters’ opinions on migration policies.
Return Rhetoric: There has been a significant increase in return rhetoric, which has increased since 2019. This emphasis, which was much more limited in the 2018 elections, appears as a common election campaign element for the 2023 elections, although the approaches to return differ. Despite some differences in tone, nearly all significant parties in Turkey today promise their voters that if elected, they will repatriate refugees.
The 2023 elections in Turkey demonstrated the potency of migration and return strategies in shaping political campaigns and influencing voter behaviour. The interplay between humanitarian concerns, national identity, and economic implications made migration complex and controversial. However, it is essential to strike a delicate balance between addressing humanitarian challenges and political objectives without compromising the integrity of the democratic process. As Turkey forges ahead, it must grapple with these complexities to strengthen its democratic institutions and foster inclusive governance for all its citizens. The 2023 Turkish elections showcased the strategic use of return rhetoric concerning Syrians, Afghans, and irregular migration as a pivotal component of political campaigns. The multifaceted nature of return rhetoric, spanning from humanitarian concerns to security narratives, underscored the complexity of migration-related issues in Turkey. As the nation navigates the aftermath of the elections, responsible political discourse and evidence-based policies are crucial to address humanitarian challenges while upholding Turkey’s commitments to international norms and principles.
Contact:
N. Ela Gökalp-Aras, Senior Researcher and Principal Investigator (GAPs Project) | Swedish Research Institute in Istanbul (SRII) | ela.gokalparas@sri.org.tr
Umutcan Yüksel, Researcher (GAPs Project) | Swedish Research Institute in Istanbul (SRII) | umutcan.yuksel@sri.org.tr
Hakan Ünay, Researcher (GAPs Project) | Swedish Research Institute in Istanbul (SRII) | hakan.unay@sri.org.tr