Jordan Compact Under the Microscope: Analyzing Impacts on Refugee Labor, EU Trade, and Returnees’ Decisions
Syrian and Jordanian women employed in a garment factory in one of Jordan's industrial zones. Source: Flickr; Google Image
by: Rasha Istaiteyeh, Hashemite University
In 2016, the Jordan Compact marked a fresh, comprehensive strategy forged between the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the international community to address the Syrian refugee crisis. Jordan, shouldering a substantial burden as a host to refugees, undertakes a global public good on behalf of the international community. The repatriation of refugees hinges on political stability and individual willingness, introducing uncertainties in the post-conflict scenario.
Labor Market Integration
The Jordan Compact is a collaborative effort to integrate Syrian refugees into Jordan's labor market, particularly in sectors such as garment export. However, this initiative was criticized for displacing existing migrant workers and ignoring decent work standards. The Jordanian government, committed to the principles of the Compact, has taken significant measures, such as waiving work permit fees and extending grace periods for Syrian refugees.
Nevertheless, several years after the Compact was issued, development strategies have shown little evidence of helping to empower refugees. Despite efforts to grant Syrian refugees limited labor rights in specific sectors, challenges remain, including high unemployment, informal employment, labor violations, and insufficient social security coverage. The lack of work permits, and formal employment contracts increases refugees' vulnerabilities. Even though the 62,000 work permits include 31,000 flexible permits, which allow refugees to move between similar jobs within the same sector as well as between companies and governorates, they fail to address a significant portion of the Syrian refugee labor force. The Syrian refugee crisis significantly impacts Jordan's economy and labor market, necessitating ongoing adaptations in policies and interventions.
Exports to the European Union
The European Union committed substantial financial aid and trade incentives to Jordan through the EU-Jordan Compact, aiming to boost Jordan's economy and provide opportunities for Syrian refugees. Efforts included easing trade regulations, facilitating exports, and supporting employment for refugees. Exporting goods is essential for bolstering a nation's economic health and stability, emphasizing the significance of addressing trade imbalances and fostering export growth. After signing the compact, there was an improvement in exports to the European Union However, Jordanian exports to European Union (EU) countries fell 6.4 percent in 2023.
Returnee Decisions
During the first seven months of 2023, 2,582 Syrian refugees left Jordan to return to Syria . The Syrian refugee crisis presents multifaceted challenges, including safety concerns, sustainability issues, and a reluctance among host countries to extend protection. Despite portrayals of an end to the conflict, the ongoing instability in Syria hinders the prospects of voluntary and sustainable repatriation. The compact's timing appears to be out of sync with the current political context, particularly because it prioritizes voluntary repatriation while failing to address Syria's ongoing conflict and security instability. Efforts by host countries like Jordan, including the implementation of the compact, have shown limited impact on refugee return rates. Between 2016 and the end of July 2023, 373,912 Syrian refugees returned home, including 67,312 from Jordan. While the objective of the compact is to provide refugees with settlement and rights for a decent life, achieving the goal of refugee return reveals a different reality. Over recent years, the rate of return has remained low, especially when considering the total number of Syrians in Jordan, which surpassed 639,552 by the end of February 2024 . This discrepancy highlights the challenges in realizing the compact's aim of facilitating refugee repatriation.
The international community's emphasis on voluntary repatriation emphasizes the importance of addressing the underlying causes of displacement while prioritizing refugees' safety and well-being. Finally, sustainable solutions must acknowledge refugees' resilience and aspirations for a secure future that go beyond geographic relocation.
Figure (1) Source: (Central Bank of Jordan); (UNHCR)
A Transformative Opportunity for Collaborative Solutions
Despite altruistic intentions, the Jordan Compact encounters substantial challenges, with studies deeming it unsuccessful. The complexities extend beyond discrimination and economic exploitation, revealing shortcomings in policy implementation and an inadequate enabling environment for refugees.
The engagement of refugees in the labor market is crucial, underlining the necessity for enhanced work permit issuance and cooperation with external entities to bolster workers. This fosters their assimilation into the workforce, thereby making a favorable impact on the economy. An increase in exports was observed after the signing of the compact, as illustrated in Figure 1. However, exporting to the European Union has exposed challenges stemming from employment prerequisites and trade facilitation. Maximizing export efficiency demands consistent facilitation without imposing conditions like mandatory work permits, thereby fostering seamless trade relationships and fostering economic expansion.
Finally, in discussing the return of refugees, it's evident that it hinges on the cessation of war. While the signing of the compact may suggest a focus on settlement and livelihood in Jordan, it's essential to prioritize refugees' right to a decent life regardless of their location. This necessitates improving their living standards and opportunities for work, deferring discussions on return until stability prevails in Syria. When looking at the time series related to refugee return in Figure 1, we observe that the number of returnees after the signing of the pact is minimal except for one year, which is 2019, where the number of returnees reached 29,409. As the situation evolves, a comprehensive approach that considers the well-being and aspirations of refugees is paramount, ensuring a sustainable and dignified future for all involved.
The Jordan Compact represents a noble and significant initiative, yet its execution encountered significant hurdles amidst Jordan's political and economic landscape. Nonetheless, it should be seen as a global learning opportunity. Advanced nations must unite to bolster humanitarian support for refugee-hosting countries. In proportion to its population, Jordan is one of the countries hosting the most refugees. By 2024, Jordan, with a population of 11 million, has accommodated over 1.3 million refugees (ACAPS). Hence, we call for a revised version, named the Jordan Compact 2, aimed at addressing the shortcomings of its predecessor. This updated compact should receive robust and expedited support to enhance the quality of life for refugees. It could incorporate provisions for a structured repatriation process contingent upon improvements in Syria's political landscape. Additionally, it must prioritize proactive planning for return strategies. Regarding economic involvement, inviting external investments to bolster Jordan's economy initially, followed by opportunities for both Syrian refugees and Jordanians, is possible. Ultimately, crafting a comprehensive plan outlining export strategies to the European Union, including targeted annual growth rates, is essential for sustainable development.
Contact:
Rasha Istaiteyeh, Hashemite University, Jordan | ristaiteyeh@hu.edu.jo